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Interestingly, merely playing at home – the famed “home-field advantage” – may not matter very much in the No. 1 seed’s success, however.

Let’s take a look at every completed NFL season in the last 25 years. The teams that have gotten the top seed have won 26 of 50 (52%) conference titles. Given that there were 308 teams fighting over those 50 spots, this 52% is amazingly high. By probability alone, the one seed should make the Super Bowl about 15% of the time.

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Consider the simple math from 1999 to 2024. There have been 1,568 winning streaks during the regular seasonof at least two games. Only slightly less than half of those streaks (780) were extended tothree games or more.

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Over the last four seasons, four of eight (50%) of No. 1 seeds made the Super Bowl. Exactly zero of eight No. 2 seeds made the Super Bowl. This includes my Buffalo Bills who have been the second in the AFC three of the last four years.

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Of course, the success of the first seeds in making the Super Bowls isn’t merely about the bye. The No. 1 seed is often very good.

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Chiefs fans might want to argue that a “win is a win” and Kansas City was able to win last seasondespite strugglingin SRS. That is, they’re the outlier who comes up big when the game is on the line.

You might think this Bills fan would dismiss this line of thought out of hand, but I’m not going to. The Chiefsdolead the league inElo ratings(a slightly different measure of a team’s strength), which takes into account the Chiefs’ past success and weights winning – regardless of the margin – more heavily.

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But what about the fact that the Chiefs and probably the Lions will get to play twohomegames in the postseason? Isn’t home-field advantage important?

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Indeed, playing at home doesn’t seem to provide as big of an advantage as you might think. Over the last six seasons – including the 2020 Covid season when many teams didn’t have a home crowd – the home teamwon 53%ofregular season games. This season, home teams have won the same 53% ofregular season games.

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