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“I’m very concerned because the stock market is pricing in nothing but blue skies and sunshine forever,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, told 【 - Free Real-Time Trading Opportunities 】 in a phone interview. “The market is very richly valued, bordering on frothy,” he said, referring to unsustainably high valuations.

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what is causing the price volatility of bhilwara technical textiles limited (533108) ✌️【Freelance Investing】✌️ Expert market analysis and predictions for India, US, and European stocks. Stay updated with real-time data on stock indices, futures, and commodities to help you make informed, timely investment decisions. The S&P 500 gained a staggering $10 trillion in value last year, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. Markets have retreated a bit in recent weeks, but Zandi is concerned about a far steeper drop, perhaps exceeding 20%. The Moody’s economist said he hasn’t been this worried about overvalued markets since the late 1990s during the inflating of the dot-com bubble.

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“The run-up in stock values has played a critical role in the economy’s success. It’s driven a lot of spending. The wealth effects are quite potent,” he said. “But if the stock market went down, and stayed down for a lengthy period of time, that would knock the wind out of high-income spending. And that’s a threat to the economy.”

Economists say the overall economic backdroplooks strong to start 2025.Layoffs are low. Inflation has cooled. Paychecks are growing faster than prices.Gas pricesare in check.

But David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, said the “danger” today is high valuations that leave financial markets vulnerable to a sudden drop.

“I’m worried about asset bubbles,” Kelly told 【 - Free Real-Time Trading Opportunities 】. “A lot of castles in the sky have been built on the foundations of this very stable economy.”

“You could have a big correction at some stage in the things that are not tethered to reality,” he said. “There are a lot of very frothy markets out there that could take a shellacking. Investors must think carefully about how much risk they are taking.”

History shows that stocks that are overvalued can stay that way — or inflate even further — for some time. Consider that some internet companies that didn’t even generate revenue but kept gaining value in the late 1990s before reality set in around 2000.

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Consider that the S&P 500’s two-year total return (including dividends) amounted to a very impressive 58% — but that would have dropped to just 24% without the Mag Seven, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.

US stocks ended 2024 on a weak note and the volatility continued into Thursday, the first official day of trading in 2025.

UBS recently warned its clients that nearly all seven preconditions for a market bubble already exist.

“The problem with a bubble thesis is that when a bubble bursts, investors tend to lose 80% of their money,” Andrew Garthwaite, UBS global equity strategist, wrote in a December 18 report, pointing to the bursting of previous bubbles including the Nifty 50 stocks in the 1970s, in Japan in the late 1980s and the dot-com bubble.

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Bubble or not, there are countless catalysts that could trigger a market downturn, given how high expectations have been set.

For instance, there is the risk that one or more of the high-flying stocks powering this rally seriously stumbles, taking the rest of the group down. The bar has been set almost impossibly high for this group.

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Investors are still trying to make sense of the incoming Trump administration’s economic agenda, which calls for tax cuts, tariff hikes, deregulation and mass deportations.

It’s easy to see how a tariff announcement or dramatic immigration crackdown could unnerve investors on high alert for anything that is inflationary.

Ed Yardeni, president of investment advisory Yardeni Research, warns that the stock market will get “spooked” if a bond market selloff pushes the 10-year Treasury yield close to 5%.

Yardeni, who in the early 1980s coined the phrase “bond market vigilantes,” said investors will be watching closely to see if Republicans in Congress can address growing concerns about federal budget deficits.

“If they can’t get their act together and only agree to tax cuts, the bond market will freak out,” he said.

Given the extent of the recent gains, it’s only logical that some investors would now be thinking about a potential reversal.

Of course, it’s also possible that rather than drop, markets go sideways. That would buy time for corporate profits to catch up to high valuations.

Yardeni doesn’t see a high risk of a bear market, typically defined as a 20% drop from previous highs, because a recession doesn’t look imminent.

“I would view it as a buying opportunity, not a reason to panic. That doesn’t meant it won’t be uncomfortable,” Yardeni said.

Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco, said long-term investors should look past a market drop because the overall environment is likely to be positive for stocks and risk assets.

“It’s irrelevant in the grand scheme of things,” Hooper said. “We could see a pullback, but I think it would be temporary and perhaps healthy, preparing the stock market for the next leg up.”

what is causing the price volatility of bhilwara technical textiles limited (533108) ✌️【Freelance Investing】✌️ AI-driven stock trend forecasting with free access to real-time market data, offering personalized investment advice and expert predictions. Most stock quote data provided by BATS. US market indices are shown in real time, except for the S&P 500 which is refreshed every two minutes. All times are ET. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and 【 - Free Real-Time Trading Opportunities 】. Standard & Poor’s and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices Copyright S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and/or its affiliates. Fair value provided by IndexArb.com. Market holidays and trading hours provided by Copp Clark Limited.

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