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President Joe Biden has been huddled up in Camp David trying to figure out what to do after aterrible debate performanceagainst former President Donald Trump. The president had so much difficulty articulating his thoughts and maintaining his physical composure during the proceedings that it sent the party into aserious conversation about replacing him.
Biden and his family arestanding firm about his determination to stay in the race and ability to win,but the pressure has not abated. Throughout the mainstream press, the calls for him to step down have continued while privatelyDemocratic officialsand donors continue to have this conversation as well, waiting to see thepost-debate polls. According to anew 【 - Free Stock Market Group 】 poll, three-quarters of US voters say the Democrats would have a better chance to keep the presidency in 2024 with someone other than Biden as the nominee.
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Biden’s struggle during the debate worsened preexisting perceptions in the electorate that the president istoo oldfor a second term.
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But Democrats clamoring for change should also remember that switching the person at the top of ticket might not have the kind of impact they are hoping for. During the 1968 election, President Lyndon B. Johnson shocked the nation on March 31 by announcing, “I shall not seek, and will not accept, the nomination of my party for another term as your president.” Studentsran outside their apartmentsand onto the streets of Greenwich Village to celebrate the news.
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His plan didn’t work. Not only did Vietnam continue to rage for many more years but former Republican Vice President Richard Nixon, a politician detested by liberals for his ferocious anti-communism, won, after LBJ announced he would not accept the Democratic nomination.
In other words, switching out Johnson for his vice president, Hubert Humphrey, did not solve the electoral problems the party confronted.
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Given the nature of Biden’s Republican opponent in 2024, it is safe to predict that Nixon’s dirty tricks would look mild compared to what any Democrat will confront in the coming months.
Of course, historical comparisons are imperfect. The history of 1968 is a reason for Democrats to be cautious.In 2024, the concerns are about whether Biden has the stamina to continue the campaign, and to handle the challenges of governance in a second term.
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But as Democrats move through this crossroads, they would do well to consider the potential limitations of this risky decision.
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