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“Such high prices can drive up the capital cost of solar power projects by Rs 5-10 million per MW and require tariff increase of 40-50 paise per unit as offset based on current market dynamics,” it said.CareEdge Ratings too noted that the introduction of ALMM-II for domestic cells may result in an increase in the delivered cost of domestic modules by 6-7 cents per Watt-Peak, leading to a rise in solar tariffs by 40-50 paise per unit for the short run till local cell supply scales up.Analysts also say that the ALMM cell mandate could also pose challenges for companies that don’t develop domestic cell manufacturing capability as they would not be in compliance and could face module-supply challenges, which can impact their market share over the long term.“Of the 62 GW of installed capacity as of December 2024 owned by 79 entities, only 13 have an integrated cell manufacturing base.
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“Although 12 non-integrated players have announced plans to install 32 GW capacity by 2029, the relatively higher capital cost of cell manufacturing plants compared with module assembly lines, and falling prices of the solar value chain could slow things down.”Crisil estimates domestic solar cell manufacturing capacity to more than quadruple to 43-47 GW by June 2026 from 10 GW in March 2024.
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