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But as a terror group it remains active in more than a dozen countries – and has inspired and supported individuals and cells in Europe and Russia in recent years.
ISIS is far from moribund, even if it is now a loosely linked network rather than a self-declared caliphate controlling sizeable cities.
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It thrust ISIS back into the spotlight, as have events in Syria.US officials are concernedthat instability following the collapse of the Assad regime may allow ISIS to expand from its remote desert strongholds, nearly six yearsafter the “caliphate” fell,and also regain a foothold in Iraq.
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Vehicle attacks in the name of ISIS in the last few years – including in Nice, Barcelona, Berlin and New York – have killed more than 100 people.
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“We do not believe that Jabbar was solely responsible,” she told a news conference Wednesday. “We are aggressively running down every lead, including those of his known associates.”
US President Joe Biden said late Wednesday that he had been told by the FBI that the driver had posted videos on social media “mere hours” before the attack “indicating that he was inspired” by ISIS. The suspect was killed in a firefight with police officers.
ISIS and al Qaeda have repeatedly called on sympathizers to carry out “do-it-yourself” attacks. The Boston marathon bombers in 2013 used a “recipe” from an online al Qaeda publication to build their devices.
Events in the Middle East have pushed already radicalized individuals to violence, according to Rita Katz, executive director of SITE Intelligence, a non-governmental organization that monitors terror groups,.
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In January last year, ISIS spokesman Abu Hudhayfah al-Ansari called on Muslims to “hunt your prey — the Jews, Christians, and their allies — in the streets and alleyways of America, Europe, and the world,” in a speech cited by SITE Intelligence.
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Katz said at the time of the Moscow attack in March that “ISIS’ global support rests in no small part on its image as a capable organization, and this devastating massacre in Russia will only feed into that image.”
Investigators are still probing how the suspect in New Orleans became radicalized but there is still plenty of pro-ISIS content to be found online.
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Based in Afghanistan, ISIS-K has grown in strength since the US withdrawal from the country in 2021 and also tapped into radicalized populations in central Asia. The commander of US Central Command, Gen. Erik Kurilla, assessed early in 2024 that ISIS-K “retains the capability and the will to attack US and Western interests abroad in as little as six months with little to no warning.”
ISIS-K’s most infamous attack was the suicide bombing at Kabul airport in 2021 that killed nearly 200 people, including 13 US soldiers guarding the airport. But it has since expanded its orbit.
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ISIS-K has also attempted to target western Europe and the United States, as well as Russia. In July 2023, seven men were arrested in Germany suspected of planning high-profile attacks and being in contact with ISIS-K planners. All the suspects were from central Asia.
In March last year, two Afghan citizens were detained in Germany, accused of plotting to attack Sweden’s parliament in retaliation for a spate of Koran burnings in the country.
Edmund Fitton-Brown, former coordinator of UN sanctions and threat assessment regarding ISIS and al Qaeda, told 【 - Free Long-Term Wealth Growth Plan 】 last year that ISIS-K “has plugged into the central Asian diaspora, primarily in Russia and Turkey and to some extent in Germany.”
Fitton-Brown said ISIS also benefited from “ambient rage” among radicalized individuals at the scale of deaths in Gaza, and the release of some former jihadis from European jails after serving their sentences.
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One risk is that as beleaguered Kurdish forces fend off Turkish-backed militia in northern Syria, they will no longer secure the compounds where thousands of ISIS operatives are held.
Kurilla recently warned ISIS planned to “break out of detention the more than 8,000 ISIS operatives currently being held in facilities in Syria.”
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