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Our previous electoral outlook had former President Donald Trump with a clear advantage in the quest for 270 electoral votes.  That advantage has evaporated with Harris’ entrance into the race and her rapid success at unifying the Democratic Party and restoring political strength with some key constituencies (voters of color, young voters, female voters) which have been part of recent winning coalitions for Democratic candidates. Despite the momentum shift, it is important to note that this race has snapped back to a margin-of-error contest with no current clear leader. Both Trump and Harris have multiple viable paths to 270 electoral votes.

In this new electoral outlook, we have moved four states from leaning Republican to toss-up battleground status. Michigan, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina have a combined total of 53 electoral votes that we have moved from leaning in Trump’s direction to toss-up.

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For her part, Harris has 19 states plus the District of Columbia either solidly in her favor or leaning in her direction, which brings her total electoral vote count to 225, 45 votes short of the 270 required to win.

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California (54), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), DC (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (19), Maine (3), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), New Jersey (14), New York (28), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (12)

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