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“The strong jobs report sent yields higher amid expectations for the Fed to pause its rate cutting cycle for a significant period of time,” Ross Mayfield, an investment strategist at Baird, wrote in a note Friday.
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“The better-than-expected increase in jobs caused an immediate reaction in both stocks and bonds, with prices moving lower (and bond yields moving higher, as yields move inversely with price), as the Federal Reserve has even less of a reason to cut interest rates this year,” wrote Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management, in a note Friday.
Following the stronger-than-expected December employment data and concerns about resurgent inflation, Wall Street is adjusting its expectations for the Fed’s rate-cutting path this year.
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“We think the cutting cycle is over,” Aditya Bhave, senior US economist at Bank of America, said in a report. “Inflation is stuck above target, with upside risks … The conversation should move to hikes, which could be in play.”
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“You don’t rule things completely in or out … in this world,” Powellsaid, before noting “that doesn’t appear to be a likely outcome.”
However, analysts at Morgan Stanley expect the Fed to cut rates in March, highlighting diverging forecasts on Wall Street.
“The report should reduce the probability of near-term Fed cuts, though our more favorable outlook on inflation keeps us thinking a March cut is still more likely than not,” analysts at Morgan Stanley said in a note.
“The big question is to what extent is the Fed thinking about immigration and tariff policy that is yet to be implemented,” Mayfield said.
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