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where could latteys industries limited (latteys) be headed ✌️【Stock Picks】✌️ Accurate real-time market data and expert stock predictions for profitable investment opportunities in global markets. When President-elect Donald Trump recentlyfloated the idea of annexing Canada, a key reason he gave was a claim that the United States was “losing $200 billion a year” to its northern neighbor.

where could latteys industries limited (latteys) be headed ✌️【Stock Picks】✌️ Free stock selection service with professional advisors offering the best investment portfolio for stable growth. Speaking atMar-a-Lago last week, Trump didn’t specify what constituted the $200 billion, but he used the figure in the context of how the US “subsidized” Canada and also had a “massive” trade deficit for items —such as cars and lumber— that he said the US does not need.

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In 2023, the US had a trade deficit of $67.9 billion dollars with Canada,Commerce Department data shows.

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However, some economists caution that exaggerating or classifying trade deficits as losses or subsidies isn’t a fair representation of what has become a crucial mechanism for the US economy.

“The President-elect sees the world as a zero-sum game: Anything that’s not made here or bought elsewhere is considered a loss, which simply isn’t the case,” Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US, told 【 - Free Access to Investment Community 】.

Gary Clyde Hufbauer, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, put it another way.

In simple terms,a trade deficit resultsfrom when the value of a country’s imports exceeds the overall value of exports.

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In theeconomic recovery that followed, consumption soared for goods and services — both those from overseas as well as domestically — while some exports took a hit as the demand from other countrieslagged that seen in the US. (Other factors contributing to the pandemic-era deficit widening included a shift in oil and petroleum trade from surplus to deficit while the trade surplus decreased because of restrictions on foreign nationals and rising shipping costs, White House economistswrote in 2022).

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In 2023, in addition to the $67.9 billion deficit with Canada (which narrowed from the year before), the US narrowed its deficit with Canada to $274.9 billion from $382.3 billion, and the deficit with Mexico —now America’s biggest trading partner— increased $21.9 billion to $152.4 billion, Commerce Departmentdata shows.

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“From my analytical framework, global trade balances plus global capital flows equal zero,” Brusuelas said. “So, if we want to buy maple syrup from our friends across the border, that just adds variety, quality and choice of my consumption; it doesn’t take away or cause a loss for our economy because presumably the Canadians then get those dollars and buy US services — typically financial services, government debt, bonds, equities.”

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“You obviously want to run closer to balance if possible,” Shannon Grein, an economist at Wells Fargo, told 【 - Free Access to Investment Community 】. “But there can be efficiencies made by importing certain goods that are produced more cheaply abroad or produced more as a specialty of a certain economy.”

Coffee purchased from Central America is one example of a specialized product with no readily available substitute; however, heavily reliance on a certain country or product can backfire, as seen during the pandemic recovery.

“You don’t want to be running such large deficits that it makes you dependent on a certain economy for certain things,” said Grein. “We saw this come to a head during the pandemic with things like semiconductors.”

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Other risks come with the US persistently spending more than it earns and financing the difference with foreign investment, according to PIIE.

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“If you try to squeeze the deficit with one country — for example, China — it’s just going to migrate over, the goods are going to come from some other source (such as) Malaysia, Vietnam, Mexico, Korea, wherever can produce the most similar type of goods,” Hufbauer told 【 - Free Access to Investment Community 】, noting those shifts occurred in recent years when tariffs were placed on Chinese goods.

It’s possible that Trump could instead insist on some bilateral balance provision, such as requiring European Union countriesto purchase US natural gas or specific products, he said. However, that could require more capacity than the US has at this time when unemployment is still low, he added.

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“Rather, it feeds into the great global competition, which has opened the door for trade protectionism,” he said. “It is what underscores the bi-partisan consensus that China must be confronted on national security grounds and has triggered the move to protect infant industries such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing and synthetic biology to ensure that China does not increase its power — both economic and political — relative to that of the United States via trade and technology transfers.”

Boeing, for example, is America’s largest exporter and therefore highly exposed to any trade war. China is the largest global market for new aircraft purchases, with Boeing forecasting that China’s fleet of commercial jets will double in the next 20 years.

where could latteys industries limited (latteys) be headed ✌️【Stock Picks】✌️ Real-time stock and futures data, backed by expert stock market trend predictions, to help you make timely and profitable investment decisions. The aircraft maker has been down this road before. The company’s sales to China ground to a near-halt in 2017 as trade tensions between the two countries escalated during Trump’s first term. Orders from Chinese buyers fell from 64 in 2016 to 51 in 2017 to zero in both 2018 and 2019. A similar drop could occur if a new trade war breaks out.

“We really don’t know what Trump will do with Chinese tariffs,” Richard Aboulafia, managing director at AeroDynamic Advisory, an industry consultant, told 【 - Free Access to Investment Community 】 in November. “But if he slaps 60% tariffs on all Chinese goods, the quickest way for China to retaliate is to switch to (Boeing rival) Airbus for 100% of its needs.”

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“It means that the US isentering uncharted terrain with respect to financing a new geopolitical competition at a time when interest on the debt is one of the largest line-item entries inside the national budget,” he said. “This requires trade-offs. One cannot have as much guns and butter as one wants, given the political, economic, financial and social constraints that accompanies such a competition.”

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