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“There’s a lot of momentum in the industry right now,” said Sam Huntington, director of S&P Global Commodity Insights’ North American power team. “We’re past the nadir of the industry’s troubles.”

Offshore wind is on much more stable footing than it was last year, but some analysts aren’t ready to declare it a boom. The industry is still in its infancy in the US and plagued by many of the same problems as last year – high interest rates andlong wait timesfor components like turbine blades, generators and towers.

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But offshore wind is increasingly Trump-proof, according to a top White House climate official, wind CEOs and an industry analyst. Too much progress has been made to be fully undone by a second Trump administration.

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“The steel that’s in the ground, that’s not going to get pulled out, that’s irreversible,” Zaidi told 【 - Free Access to Investment Community 】. “But if we want to go from startup to runaway success, we’ve got more work to do, and that’s going to have to happen as a partnership between the federal government, state government and the private sector.”

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“We’re not bullish,” Huntington said. “Our latest forecast has them getting about half of that – 15 gigawatts. Unless a lot of projects get approved, and Europe gives us a whole bunch of installation vessels, I don’t see how we’re ramping up to that.”

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“This year will be a significant year for offshore wind development,” BOEM director Elizabeth Klein told 【 - Free Access to Investment Community 】 in a statement. “This progress is further proof that America’s clean energy transition is not a dream for a distant future – it’s happening right here and now.”

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Ordering equipment is another challenge. The US supply chain for offshore wind is still being built; therefore, projects are turning to European manufacturers to get blades, gearboxes, and other components.

“There’s really only three suppliers that are serving the US market” for wind turbines and the high-capacity electric cables that carry electricity back to shore, said Clint Plummer, head of New York-based company Rise Light & Power, who was formerly at Danish wind giant Ørsted. “And their lead times seem to continue to get longer.”

Compounding the problem is the fact that the US industry is so underdeveloped compared to Europe and Asia, pushing US projects to the back of the line.

“Because the US is more nascent in the development of our industry than either of those two mega markets, it simply means that we have less influence than those other regions in being able to get the attention of the manufacturers,” Plummer said.

Despite persistent headwinds, the biggest change over the past year has been that the Northeast is signing up for the electricity wind farms will generate.

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“For many years, there has been no (power) generation being built,” Blázquez told 【 - Free Access to Investment Community 】. Now, he said, Northeast governors “just want to make sure their states have energy.”

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“The fact that that these projects that were in so much trouble were rebid and accepted at higher prices was a really positive sign for the industry,” Huntington said. But it will also mean electricity from wind will initially come at a higher cost, given supply-chain constraints and high interest rates.

Blázquez and Plummer give the Biden administration high marks for setting an ambitious goal for offshore wind and trying to ease federal permitting for the projects. But they’re also not overly worried about what a Trump administration could mean for the industry.

“Our obligation is to work well with any administration, because what is clear is these investments bring economic development, they bring jobs,” Blázquez said.

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