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Let’s start off very simply: the Bills have never had as good of a chance of winning a Super Bowl the last few seasons as they do now.

I’m not making this up as a homer – this is statistically true. The New York Timesplayoff simulatorgives the Bills a 20% chance of finally raising the Lombardi Trophy as of time of publication. The Bills’ chances have never been higher at this point in the season dating back to when Allen first led the team to the playoffs in 2019.

On the most basic level, the team is 10-2. No Bills team this century has had a better record through 12 games. They also clinched the AFC East this past week; no franchise has clinched a division title so early since the league expanded the season to 17 games a few years ago.

Last year, you may recall, the Bills only won the division in the final game of the season down in Miami. They had to claw all the way back from being 6-6 on the campaign.

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In 2020, they were 9-3 before winning out the rest of the season. That team though was incredibly lucky.Through 12 games in the season, their point differential – the points they scored vs. gave up – was a mere 27 points. This year, the Bills are outscoring their opponents by 131 points after their 12th game.

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Consider that the team that finished second in point differential at the end of the season has gone on to appear in the Super Bowl more than 40% of the time. The team that finished second in point differential has gone on to win the Super Bowl a little less than 30% of the time.

Of course, we’ve seen a recent Bills team finish second in point differential and fail to produce:2022. That 2022 squad was 9-3 then also moved 10-3 – slightly worse than this 2024 team is currently.

By this point in the season, however, the 2022 team was struggling. After winning their average game by 15 points through October, the best they could manage in the five games leading into Week 14 was averaging a meager four-point win.

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First off, it demonstrates a “bend, don’t break” defense tremendously. The Bills tighten up near the goalline, even if they allow other teams to get close to the goalline.

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I’ll keep this short. A few years ago, I, for some reason, agreed to do a late Sunday afternoon television appearance. I thought that the Bills game would be over by then.

Instead, I had just enough time to see the Bills make a tremendous goalline stand against the Minnesota Vikings. Then, as I was riding the elevator and couldn’t see play, Allenfumbled the ballwith under a minute to go at the Bills own goalline.

If the Bills hadn’t fumbled, they would have just run out the clock by kneeling the ball. Instead, the Vikings eventually won in overtime.

It is the only game in the last 20 years where a team led with under a minute left, did not need to gain another first down in order to run out the clock… and lost.

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