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Flight-tracking data analyzed by 【 - Free Join Group 】 show more than one flight a day since mid-December – by Moscow’s giant Antonov AN-124 transport planes, as well as Ilyushin IL-76 aircraft – from Hmeimim to al-Khadim, a base near Benghazi in eastern Libya.

Earlier this month, US and Western officials told 【 - Free Join Group 】 that Russia hadbegun withdrawing a large amount of military equipmentand troops from Syria.

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Jalel Harchaoui, an associate fellow at the London-based Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank, told 【 - Free Join Group 】 there has been an “undeniable spike in Russian aircraft landing in Libya from Syria, Russia and Belarus” in recent weeks.

Hmeimim has been the hub from which Russian mercenary operations in Africa – at first in the Central African Republic and later in Sudan, Libya, Mali and Burkina Faso – were sustained.

By strengthening its presence in Libya, Moscow may retain enough capability to pursue its broader ambitions further south in Africa, absorbing the new costs inevitably associated with Assad’s downfall, Harchaoui said.

Geolocated video shows at least one of the planes that recently arrived at al-Khadim flew on to Bamako in Mali, where Russia has recently supplanted long-term French influence.

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“Russian flights to Bamako via Libya demonstrate that Russia has already turned to Libya as an alternative to its Syrian bases,” analysts at the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats project said in a briefing note.

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It’s no coincidence perhaps that a week ago the Italian military’s chief of staff, Gen. Luciano Portolano, visited Tripoli – where Haftar’s United Nations-backed rivals govern.

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“Russia has not deployed naval vessels to Tobruk just yet, which is very smart since such a brazen move could have provoked NATO’s mobilization prematurely,” Harchaoui said.

Haftar is a mercurial and ageing leader in a chronically divided and volatile country. “Haftar is often switching allegiances, only controls half of the country and is, at an age of 81, not exactly a youthful figure,” said Ulf Laessing, head of the Sahel Program at the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Mali.

“There is no legal agreement like with Syria, and Haftar could anytime show the Russians the door,” Laessing added. He could exploit his position to demand more sophisticated Russian hardware – which Moscow can ill afford to spare.

In some ways, Libya is a poor substitute for Syria. Transport planes can only practically reach Libya from Russia if they are allowed to overfly Turkey, providing Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan with a handy bargaining chip.

It’s not clear that Syria’s new leadership is determined to kick the Russian military out of Hmeimim and Tartus. Interim leader Ahmed al-Sharaa said in aninterview this weekthat the new government does not want Russia to leave the country “in a manner that does not fit its relations with Syria.”

But given Syria’s uncertain trajectory, Moscow will want to hedge its bets in a region of growing strategic importance.

“Even if the new rulers allow Russia to keep the Hmeimim air and Tartus naval bases it will have to cut down its troop levels and logistics such as ammunition warehouses in Syria as they are no longer needed to support Assad,” Laessing said.

Harchaoui agreed, saying that even if Russia maintains some presence in Syria, the level of comfort, logistical ease and security it once enjoyed under Assad will never return.

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Even so, Russia has dragged a coal from the fire of Assad’s demise, said Harchaoui. Its “logistical network has neither been destroyed nor entirely decimated; it has merely been degraded and rendered more costly, more uncertain, and shakier.”

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