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In fact, it has long been considered “sound” foreign policy. One of the central reasons offered by its defenders: Calculating which negative outcomes are undesirable yet not existential for the outside world (Ukraine potentially falling to Russia) and which are worth going to war over (a NATO member being attacked) has kept much worse outcomes from occurring, like World War III.

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Because no country’s power or influence is infinite, nation-states must determine what are their crucial, even existential, interests and what are not. They must also decide what risks they are willing to take to accomplish what goals, and what risks are too great.

If Machiavelli and Otto von Bismarck are often proffered as two fathers of realpolitik, the Cold War is perhaps the greatest endorsement of its wisdom. As the thinking goes: Despite a “twilight struggle” between the superpowers and their many proxy conflicts and close calls, like the Cuban missile crisis, they never allowed confrontation to escalate to a direct conflict, or worse.

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But we have never had to watch realpolitik unfold in real time on 24/7 social media in a world of ubiquitous camera phones. And it complicates matters, especially for world leaders, like Biden and Putin. It makes the cruelty of traditional power politics transparent and ubiquitous.

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Ukraine is not a member of NATO. Its neighbors Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania are. If Russia attacks any of them, the United States and the other 29 members of NATO are obligated by Article 5 to consider it an attack on themselves and to defend that member state.

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