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Unlike their previous meetings, the Lima talks won’t result in a long list of takeaways or deliverables. Instead, senior US officials described the meeting as a moment for reflection between two men whose relationshipbegan more than a decade agoon a lengthy trip through China.
For all of the reminiscing Biden and Xi may do, however, their final encounter will be shadowed by the results of last week’s election. Trump enters office having promised a hard line on China and has already placed a string of China hawks in key positions ahead of his swearing-in in January, portending a contentious relationship in the years ahead.
How that approach will materially differ from Biden’s remains to be seen, given the current administration has taken aggressive steps to limit Chinese technology and to bolster American alliances in Asia as a counter to Beijing.
In agreeing to meet with Biden in his lame-duck period, Xi appears to be signaling a desire to maintain continuity and relative stability amid the US leadership transition.
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“This is a tough, complicated relationship between the US and China, and so whatever the next administration decides, they are going to need to find ways to manage that tough, complicated relationship,” one senior administration official said.
Biden officials believe maintaining robust communication channels and engaging in “tough conversations” across the Chinese government has helped mitigate certain misunderstandings between the two superpowers. But Biden will still hand off a series of contentious issues to Trump when he departs office.
“Russia, cross-strait issues, South China Sea, and cyber are areas the next administration is going to need to think about carefully, because those are areas of deep policy difference with China, and I don’t expect that will disappear,” the official said.
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How Trump approaches the new world reality remains to be seen. Trump attempted to cultivate strong ties with Xi early in his first presidency, but their relationship soured amid trade disputes and the origins of Covid-19.
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Biden has placed communication at the center of the Xi relationship, prioritizing regular phone calls and meetings as a way to ensure no miscommunications. He’s also found some areas for cooperation, including on fentanyl trafficking and climate change.
He’s also poured money into American attempts at competing with China on the global stage through infrastructure investments in the developing world.
Even ahead of the meetings, however, shifting global power dynamics have been on display. While in Peru, Xi inaugurated a $1.3 billion port, an extension of China’s efforts at making inroads across the southern hemisphere.
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Former Obama foreign policy adviser Ben Rhodes wrote about that 2016 meeting in his book “The World As It Is: A Memoir of the Obama White House,” writing that Xi asked Obama about the president-elect.
“Toward the end of the meeting, Xi asked about Trump. Again, Obama suggested that the Chinese wait and see what the new administration decided to do in office, but he noted that the president-elect had tapped into real concerns among Americans about the fairness of our economic relationship with China,” Rhodes wrote.
“Sitting across the table from Obama, he pushed aside the binder of talking points that usually shape the words of a Chinese leader. ‘We prefer to have a good relationship with the United States,’ he said, folding his hands in front of him. ‘That is good for the world. But every action will have a reaction. And if an immature leader throws the world into chaos, then the world will know whom to blame,’” Rhodes continued.
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