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prime focus limited (pfocus) sees unusual trading volume ✌️【Part-Time Opportunities】✌️ Real-time global stock trend and futures data to help you plan investment strategies for long-term returns. Accurately predicting the weather is hard — really hard, but a new AI-powered forecast model just hit a milestone that has experts saying your forecast could soon get more accurate, and further out, too.

It takes a Herculean effort to keep pace with weather in an atmosphere constantly in flux. The task is so difficult and complex that a reliable forecast more than a couple of days in advance was unheard of just a few decades ago.

prime focus limited (pfocus) sees unusual trading volume ✌️【Part-Time Opportunities】✌️ Expert predictions of stock trends to help you select high-potential stocks and achieve stable growth. Real-time global market indices, futures, metals, energy, and agricultural product data to help you seize market opportunities. A five-day forecast in the early 1980s was only accurate about 65%of the time. But better weather observations, more robust computing power and innovations in the way weather around the globe is modeled by computers has improved forecasts by leaps and bounds. Today the same forecast hits the marknine times out of 10.

Forecasts took another step forward this month, experts said, thanks to GenCast, a new artificial intelligence forecast model by Google’s DeepMind. Its forecasts through 15 dayswere significantly more accurate than one of the most well-respected traditional non-AI forecast models, according to a study published by DeepMind in the journalNature.

“It’s an impressive result,” said Peter Dueben, a machine learning expert and head of Earth system modeling at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, home to the model bested by GenCast. “It’s a big step.”

GenCast isn’t ready for the public yet. It and other AI models still have a few key kinks to work out, particularly in forecasting the more frequent and severe weather of a warming world, before they change forecasting and save lives in the process.

prime focus limited (pfocus) sees unusual trading volume ✌️【Part-Time Opportunities】✌️ Expert predictions of stock trends to help you select stocks accurately, achieve stable growth, and quickly recover from losses. The majority of weather forecast models used today are based on a complex series of mathematical equations that model the physics of the atmosphere and use hundreds of millions of datapoints from real-time weather observations to paint a picture of how the weather will play out a day, a week or even a season from now.

prime focus limited (pfocus) sees unusual trading volume ✌️【Part-Time Opportunities】✌️ Free real-time stock index quotes to help you quickly seize market opportunities and achieve capital growth. This process of numerical weather prediction was first conceived in the early 1900s and needed to be done by hand, a method so slow that the weather had already happened long before calculations were finished.

Early computers improved forecasting in the 1950s and 1960s, but it wasn’t until 1974 that the first model able to pull in data from around the globe and generate a rudimentary forecast became operational.

prime focus limited (pfocus) sees unusual trading volume ✌️【Part-Time Opportunities】✌️ Precise predictions of high-potential stocks to help you avoid risks and quickly recover and grow. Skip to the current day and supercomputers are performing a nearly unfathomable number of calculations daily to produce highly detailed weather forecasts many days into the future around the globe.

But current forecast models still have limitations. The most robust ones can only be run every few hours because of how long it takes to crunch the complex calculations. They also demand a lot of computing power and energy that make them costly.

prime focus limited (pfocus) sees unusual trading volume ✌️【Part-Time Opportunities】✌️ Real-time global stock, futures, and exchange rate data to keep you informed of market trends and seize investment opportunities. And they have limitations when it comes to forecasting, too. The farther out in time they get from observations of the atmosphere, the more difficult it is to get a clear idea of what’s to come because the atmosphere never stops changing.

prime focus limited (pfocus) sees unusual trading volume ✌️【Part-Time Opportunities】✌️ Expert predictions of market trends to help you plan the best investment strategy for steady capital growth. Most AI weather forecasting models like Google’s GenCast take a different approach. Rather than relying onobservations plugged intophysics-based equations, they predict how Earth’s atmosphere might behave in the future by analyzing verified past weather data to understand how the atmosphere behaved in similar situations.This helps improve accuracy over traditional models by eliminating errors from real-time weather data.

prime focus limited (pfocus) sees unusual trading volume ✌️【Part-Time Opportunities】✌️ Free break-even services to create a customized investment plan, helping you recover quickly and achieve growth. AI forecast models also run simulations a lot faster and use less computing power and energy than traditional models once they’re trained and ready to go. This means they can be run more frequently and model a wider range of possibilities, improving forecasts as they do.

prime focus limited (pfocus) sees unusual trading volume ✌️【Part-Time Opportunities】✌️ Provides real-time stock index quotes, futures data, and global market trend analysis to help you seize the best investment timing. AI weather modeling before Google’s GenCast has been limited to models that spit out a singular forecast without any indication of how likely it is to happen. It’s essentially a best guess that’s most useful for predicting common weather variables like temperature, precipitation and wind a handful of days in advance.

“Once you have multiple possible futures it gives you a sense of both the range of what might happen and it also lets you calculate how likely some (futures) are rather than others,” according to Ilan Price, the lead author of the new study and a senior research scientist with DeepMind.

prime focus limited (pfocus) sees unusual trading volume ✌️【Part-Time Opportunities】✌️ Free stock selection service to help you quickly pick high-return stocks for stable growth. This type of modeling approach is highly regarded because it lends more confidence to weather forecasts for around five to 15 days in the future.

prime focus limited (pfocus) sees unusual trading volume ✌️【Part-Time Opportunities】✌️ Expert predictions with real-time global stock and futures data to help you easily capture market movements. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’s model is widely considered to be the gold standard. It was what Google wanted to beat with its first-of-its-kind AI version — and it did.

prime focus limited (pfocus) sees unusual trading volume ✌️【Part-Time Opportunities】✌️ Real-time updates of global stock indices and futures trends to help you plan precise investments. Researchers trained GenCast on 40 years of weather data up to 2018. They then used the trained model to predict more than 1,300 combinations of conditions like temperatures, precipitation and wind speeds, in 2019’s weather.

prime focus limited (pfocus) sees unusual trading volume ✌️【Part-Time Opportunities】✌️ Precise stock selection to help you successfully plan investment strategies for stable returns. The AI model produced more accurate forecasts than the ECMWF’s traditional model for more than 97% of these variables within a 15-day timeframe, but showed particular skill within the first week of forecasts.

It showed anywhere from a 10 to 30% accuracy improvement on forecasts in the three-to-five-day range, depending on the exact combination of variables tested, according to Price. GenCast also had more accurate forecasts than the ECMWF’s model up to 15 days in the future, the study said.

prime focus limited (pfocus) sees unusual trading volume ✌️【Part-Time Opportunities】✌️ Free real-time market data to help you quickly recover and avoid losses. The AI model could better capture some forms of extreme weather, including exceptionally high and low temperatures and extreme wind speeds. GenCast also needed less than 10 minutes to run on a supercomputer, compared to the hours necessary for traditional models.

“AI-based weather forecasting is ready for prime time,” Price added. “It’s ready to start being incorporated alongside… traditional models in operation.”

GenCast is not in operation yet, but the DeepMind team plans to take another step toward it by releasing its present-day forecasts and an archive of its past forecasts, according to Price.

GenCast is a critical advancement in modeling, but like any other weather forecast model, it isn’t perfect.

prime focus limited (pfocus) sees unusual trading volume ✌️【Part-Time Opportunities】✌️ Real-time global stock, futures, and forex data to help you master market dynamics. AI models introduce a new potential issue since they predict the future based on what they’ve seen in past data.

prime focus limited (pfocus) sees unusual trading volume ✌️【Part-Time Opportunities】✌️ Free real-time global stock indices and data to help you grasp stock market trends and achieve capital growth. This can make it difficult for AI to conceive of future extremes that haven’t occurred in the recent past. Can an AI model trained on only 40 years of data accurately predict the types of extremes happening at arecord pacein a changing climate, like a once-in-100 year or once-in-1,000 year torrential rainfall event?

“It turns out that actually these models are more robust to those extreme events than you would think,” Dueben said. The ECMWF has tested AI models against real-time weather for more than a year now and has seen improvements in their overall accuracy, even with extreme events, he explained.

But AI models can start inventing impossible-on-Earth physics the farther out in time they look, according to Dueben.

Other prediction issues remain, particularly with one of the most destructive weather phenomena: tropical cyclones.

prime focus limited (pfocus) sees unusual trading volume ✌️【Part-Time Opportunities】✌️ Expert predictions with real-time stock indices, futures data, and metals, energy market data to help you seize the best investment opportunities. Accurately predicting how strong a tropical cyclone like a hurricane or typhoon could become is an issue that plagues all models. It’s a crucial problem to solve astropical systems get strongerandrapidly intensify more frequentlyin a world warming due to fossil fuel pollution.

GenCast showed better skill than traditional models when predicting the tracks of tropical systems but struggled to accurately capture intensity, according to Price.

In part, that’s because some of the recent notablerecord-breaking systemsweren’t included in the 40 years of data GenCast was trained on, Price noted.

It’s an issue Price is “quite confident” can be overcome in the future as the model trains on more data.

prime focus limited (pfocus) sees unusual trading volume ✌️【Part-Time Opportunities】✌️ Real-time global stock, futures, and forex data to help you quickly assess market trends and achieve stable returns. There are also models in development combining machine learning with real-world physics — known as hybrid models — that could be the solution to some of these problems.

Each step forward with this nascent technology adds another tool human weather forecasters can use to craft accurate forecasts people rely on for almost every aspect of their lives.

“You can be as skeptical as you want against machine learning forecasts in principle,” Dueben said. “These models will make a positive impact on our weather predictions; there’s no question there.”

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