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Facts First:Trump’s categorical claim that “the people of Canada like it” is false. Though it’s certainly possible to find Canadians who support the idea of Canada becoming the 51st state, the idea is overwhelmingly unpopular with the Canadian public as a whole. ADecember pollby the firm Leger found that 82% of Canadians said they didn’t like the idea and just 13% said they liked it.

Facts First:False. The US goods and services trade deficit with Canada was about $40.6 billion in 2023,according to the US government’s Bureau of Economic Analysis, nowhere close to “$200 billion.” Even if you only consider trade in goods and ignore the services trade at which the US excels, the US deficit with Canada was about $72.3 billion in 2023, the bureau reported, still far shy of Trump’s figure. And it’s worth noting that the deficit isoverwhelmingly causedby the US importing a large quantity of inexpensive Canadian oil, whichhelps keep Americans’ gas prices down.

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“If (hypothetically) Canadian oil were not available, many US refineries would struggle to find heavy crude elsewhere, and they might even stop operating in such a scenario. Historically, Venezuela had been a large producer of heavy crude, but Venezuela’s oil industry is a shadow of its former self,”Pavel Molchanov, an energy expert who is an investment strategy analyst at Raymond James, said in an email.

“So, in fact, importing Canadian oil helps protect jobs in the US refining industry.Furthermore, US refining companies appreciate the fact that Canadian heavy crude is cheaper than the light sweet crude that is produced in Texas and Louisiana.”

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Facts First:Trump was wrong when he said Canada spends “less than 1%” of GDP on defense, though it’s true that Canada has consistently fallen short of the 2% target.Official NATO figuresshow Canada spent an estimated 1.37% of GDP on defense in 2024, up from an estimated 1.31% in 2023. Canada was above 1% for the entirety of Trump’s first presidency, ranging from 1.44% in 2017 to 1.29% in 2019.

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But Canadian defense policy expertStephen Saidemannoted in an email that in absolute terms – not factoring in the size of each member’s economy – Canada is actually one of NATO’slargest spenders on defense; it was 8th highest in 2024 out of 31 members excluding Iceland.

“Despite spending less than 2%, Canada is still one of the biggest spenders on military stuff – its economy is larger than most NATO members, so in absolute terms, it buys and spends a lot,” saidSaideman, the Paterson Chair in International Affairs atCarleton University in Ottawa and director of the Canadian Defence and Security Network.

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Facts First:Canadiandefense expertsandthe Canadian government itselfhave raised concerns about the size and readiness of Canada’s military, but that military very much exists – withmore than 63,000 regular servicemembersas of fall 2024, plus more than 20,000 reservists. The Canadian military has fought alongside the US military inthe war in Afghanistan(in which more than 150 Canadian troopsdied),the war against ISIS in Syria and Iraq,the Gulf War,the Korean Warand bothworldwars(in which tens of thousands of Canadian troops died), in addition to participating in other wars andpeacekeeping missions. The Canadian military and US military jointly operate theNorth American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD)and conduct numerous other activities together, including ongoing strategic initiativesin Latviaandthe South China Sea.

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“Canada’s military is not NATO’s largest, but it has regularly made significant contributions, such as holding downKandahar, one of the toughest places in Afghanistan, with little help until Obama’s surge. It is playing a significant role as theleader of the NATO effort in Latvia,” Saideman said. “It is in the middle of a major recapitalization effort that will give it88 F-35s, 15 frigates, and more. So, smaller than it should be? Sure. Very small? No. None? Not at all.”

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Facts First:Trump’s claim is false. Canada, which has the world’s largest coastline, has never been surrounded by Russian and Chinese ships, let alone been “constantly” surrounded. In fact, a smattering of Russian and Chinese militaryshipsandjets, as well asChinese research vesselsviewed with suspicion by Canada and the US, have been occasionally spotted in recent years in the vicinity of Alaska – and have been monitored or intercepted by the Canadian and US militaries.

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Lackenbauer said in an email: “When Chinese vessels have entered Canadian Arctic waters to conduct marine scientific research, they have acquired the requisite permits from the Government of Canada. There are no Russian fishing vessels (or intelligence-collecting boats masquerading as fishing vessels) active in Canadian waters like there are off the coast of Alaska – a simple glance at the map of the Arctic will explain the difference in geographical proximity – and there have been no Chinese-Russian joint exercises in or near Canadian waters as there have been off the coast of Alaska.”

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Huebert argued that the Trump administration would itselfworsen the Chinese and Russian naval threat to Canada in the Arcticif it decided to aggressively press the longstanding US argument that Canada’s claim to the Northwest Passage is “illegitimate,” as Trump’s then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeodeclared in 2019, and that the passage is actually international waters.

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