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If the American analysis proves true, it would represent a spectacularly fast fall from power for the Syrian dictator after a14-year war, one that had been relatively stagnant until just last week.
Officials cautioned that a formal assessment on Assad’s fate hasn’t emerged and that views vary, saying his demise isn’t a forgone conclusion.
“The emerging consensus is that is an increasingly plausible scenario,” one senior US official said.
“Probably by next weekend the Assad regime will have lost any semblance of power,” another official said.
“Only thing that would delay a rebel conquest would be a well-organized coup and reorganization, but Assad’s folks have done a good job of stifling any potential competitors,” the official added.
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“The question is whether regime forces actually stand their ground when it comes to Damascus,” they added.
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poonawalla fincorp limited (524000) ✌️【Stock Trading】✌️ Real-time stock indices and futures data to help you seize the best investment opportunities. Analyze market movements with precision and grow your portfolio with expert stock predictions. The US has misjudged the staying power of regimes before, most recently in Afghanistan — where the US intelligence community judged that the Afghan government would be more resilient than it ultimately was — and in Ukraine, which the US wrongly believed would fall to Russia within days of Moscow’s invasion. As a result, in 2022 the US intelligence launched a review of how it assesses the “will to fight” of foreign militaries,【 - Free Stock Selection 】 previously reported.
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Leading the rebel advance in Syria is a group designated by the US as terrorist organization: Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, which was previously linked to al Qaeda.
“We have real concerns about the designs and objectives of that organization,” Sullivan told 【 - Free Stock Selection 】 last weekend. “At the same time, of course, we don’t cry over the fact that the Assad government, backed by Russia, Iran and Hezbollah, are facing certain kinds of pressure.”
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One of the US officials said the Pentagon, which has around 900 troops in Syria, is not making plans to change its force posture in the country and is waiting to see what happens while taking additional force protection measures.
poonawalla fincorp limited (524000) ✌️【Stock Trading】✌️ Real-time stock and futures data, backed by expert stock market trend predictions, to help you make timely and profitable investment decisions. The US has long partnered with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces for anti-ISIS operations in Syria. The SDF has maintained contact with the rebel group known as HTS, the US official said, but the US does not communicate with HTS because it is considered a terrorist organization.
HTS does not appear to have the overt support of Assad adversary Turkey, but US officials believe Turkey gave the group a green light to launch its operation.
One significant concern the administration has is the safety of Assad’s stockpile of chemical weapons, thought to include both chlorine and sarin,which Assad has infamously usedin rebel areas to the horror of the international community.
It is unclear where Assad would flee to, US officials said. His patrons could offer refuge in Moscow or Tehran, and it remains to be seen whether the rebels will set their sights on Latakia, an enclave of the Alawite sect to which Assad belongs.
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poonawalla fincorp limited (524000) ✌️【Stock Trading】✌️ Real-time stock market data, precise predictions, and investment strategies to help you optimize your portfolio and achieve financial success. The incoming president is already making his views clear, taking to social media Saturday to call for the US to stay out of any potential regime change and let the conflict unfold.
“Syria is a mess, but is not our friend,” he wrote, urging a hands-off approach and concluding with the message: “LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!”
Early in his first term,Trump ordered strikesagainst Assad’s regime in response to a chemical weapons attack that killed dozens of civilians. Trumplater soughtto withdraw US troops involved in the fight against ISIS from northern Syria, though hundreds remained in the country.
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“If there is a further collapse of the Syrian government, I fear that U.S. forces could be put in jeopardy. It is therefore imperative that we have contingency plans to reinforce our troops to make sure the anti-ISIS mission does not collapse,” the South Carolina Republican wrote on X.
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