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But that won’t totally eliminate its effect. And, despite its late arrival, it’s already played a clear role in this winter’s weather.

Forecasters closely monitor La Niña and its counterpartEl Niñobecause they influence global weather in a way that’s largely consistent and predictable well in advance – especially when the patterns are strong.

Last winter was thewarmest on recordfor the US and was dominated by a very strong”super” El Niño. This winter is different: Not only is La Niña much weaker than last year’s potent El Niño, it’s also arrivingreally late to the party. Both exert their greatest influence on weather in the winter months, and this La Niña has already lost a lot of time, according to Emily Becker, a research professor at the University of Miami.

“It is really getting started right at the time when it would normally be peaking (in strength) and beginning to dwindle,” Becker, who is also one of the main authors of NOAA’sLa Niña/El Niño blog, explained.

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California is the most obvious example. Winter in Northern California is typically wetter during La Niña while the southern half of the state is drier than normal. Those extremes are playing out in a major way: Northern California has hadplenty of rainwhile Southern California is so tinder-dry that thousands of acres ignited this week.

La Niña also typically delivers more precipitation to the Midwest. Multiple major Midwest cities — including St. Louis, Indianapolis and Cincinnati — are having one of the wettest starts to winter to date, according to data from the Southeast Regional Climate Center.

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“If La Niña were stronger, I would have more confidence … that the rest of the winter would closely resemble La Niña’s expected impact,” Becker explained, noting that the weaker La Niña leaves room for other atmospheric factors to exert influence.

Despite this, warmer than normal temperatures are expected to win out over much of the southern tier of the US and East from January through March, according to the CPC. Cooler than normal conditions are anticipated for some northwestern states, also typical of La Niña.

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Long-range forecasters at the CPC firstraised the possibilityof a switch to La Niña back in February 2024 when El Niño was still very strong. At the time, experts thought La Niña would arrive over the summer or fall and increase hurricane activity in the Atlantic.

El Niño finallylost its gripon global weather in June, but La Niña’s arrival wasdelayed repeatedly, leaving an extended period of neutral conditions in place through the summer and fall. It turned out hurricane season didn’t need La Niña in order todeliver devastating impactsanyway.

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It proved difficult for the equatorial Pacific to cool off into a La Niña phase when the surrounding oceans and atmosphere retained so much exceptional heat.

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