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Even if thosetax breaksare allowed to lapse at year’s end, the federal budget deficit will still climb to $2.7 trillion in a decade, according to the CBO’s latest outlook, released Friday. That projection takes into account a boost in individual income tax revenue starting in 2026, though the impact will be “relatively modest,” CBO Director Phillip Swagel told reporters Friday.

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In 2035, the adjusted deficit will equal 6.1% of the nation’s gross domestic product, or GDP, far higher than the 3.8% average of the past 50 years. The deficits are notably large considering the forecasts for relatively low unemployment rates in coming years, Swagel noted.

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Fiscal conservatives are advocating for spending cuts, which Democrats have sought to blunt. Discretionary spending, which includes defense, certain veterans’ benefits, transportation, education and other items, as a share of the economy is relatively low compared to its historical average, Swagel said.

For the current fiscal year, the deficit will rise to $1.9 trillion, or 6.2% of GDP, as the federal government continues to spend more than it collects in revenue. Trump’s Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent wants toslash the budget deficitto 3% of GDP by 2028.

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CBO’s budget outlooks are critical for Congress because they establish baselines for spending, revenue and deficits under current law. These baselines are used to evaluate the cost of future policy measures.

However, some GOP lawmakers are floating the idea of evaluating the cost of extending the expiring tax provisions as though they were going to continue, a method known as “current policy.” This would make it look as though extending the measures has no cost, rather than adding trillions of dollars to the deficit over a decade under current law, in which the tax cuts lapse at the end of 2025.

“CBO’s new report shows the high budgetary stakes as a new Congress and president begin their terms and face critically important budget decisions this year,” said Michael Peterson, CEO of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, a watchdog group. “To meet this moment, it is essential that America demonstrates this basic fiscal competence: that we can keep our government open, avoid self-inflicted economic crises and begin to address our $36 trillion and growing national debt.”

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