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Ukraine’s request for HIMARS, Abrams tanks, F16s – all followed a similar pattern of refuse and prevaricate, and then grant, almost at the moment when it is too late.

Is it too late for the US-made Army Tactical Missile Systems, or ATACMS, to make a difference if it hits targets deep insideRussia?

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Firstly, there is a limited supply of ATACMS that Ukraine can get its hands on. So even Kyiv being able to hit deep inside Russia is not going to yield an overnight change in the battlefield. The White House did not specify the variant of ATACMS it has given permission to be fired into Russia, but the missile’s longest range can be up to 300 kilometers (190 miles), per the manufacturer’s website.

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It is true that Moscow is quite militarily weak now, and unlikely to seek full conflict with NATO or the US.

But at some point, the Kremlin will seek to restore its deterrence. Moscow’s intelligence services have been blamed for sabotage of civilian targets across Europe, including recent reports thatexplosive packageswere planted on courier planes inside Europe.

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Yet the White House is keen to stress the deployment ofNorth Korean troopsinto Kursk fueled its decision – that this is the US’ response to Moscow’s escalation.

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But the fact he delayed so long because of the extraordinary symbolism of granting this permission just adds to the potency of the decision he just took.

President-elect Donald Trump may think he can talk peace, but he will inherit a war where the stakes have just got significantly higher.

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