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“The updated ‘dot plot’ showed a median expectation of just 50bp of further rate cuts next year, half the magnitude foreseen in the September forecast, while also nudging the longer-run rate estimate higher to 3.00%, suggesting a shallower easing cycle than previously expected,” says Michael Brown Senior Research Strategist at Pepperstone.Trump favours a lower rate regime and Powell’s hawkishness may work against his policies.

However, not much can change in 2025.

“There’s not much the Trump administration can do to force the Fed to loosen rates faster in the near term, but that could change in 2026 if President-elect Trump gets the Senate to confirm a new Fed chair who is more sympathetic to his policy goals,” says Bill Adams, Chief Economist for Comerica Bank.US Fed’s statement reads (excerpts) – Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace.

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Inflation has made progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent objective but remains somewhat elevated.Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H.

Powell, Chair; John C.

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Cook; Mary C.

Daly; Philip N.

Jefferson; Adriana D.

Kugler; and Christopher J.

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Voting against the action was Beth M.

Hammack, who preferred to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/2 to 4-3/4 percent.Oil prices went down on Friday due to concerns about slower demand growth in 2025, particularly in China.

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Meanwhile, slower interest rate cuts could hinder economic growth and reduce oil demand.

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