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central banksignaledabout its monetary policy ambitions in 2025.The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the target federal funds rate by 25 basis points from 4.5%-4.75% to 4.25%-4.5%, adjusting the range for what’s nominally known as interest rates as the Fed-determined rate widely impacts borrowing costs throughout the country.That brings rates down to their lowest level since February 2023, down a full percentage point from the 5.25%-5.5% range they were from July 2023 through September.Economists at theworld’sthree largest investment banks – Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase – and derivatives traders all agreed a 25 basis point cut was the most likely outcome Wednesday.The Fed also revealed its quarterly summary of economic projections, which includes where each central banker expects interest rates to end up in 2025.The median Fed staff forecasts calls for rates to end 2025 at 3.75%-4%, meaning just two more 25 basis point cuts are on the table, a decrease from the 3.25%-3.5%, or four cuts, forecasted in September.There was a clear consensus on what the Fed will announce about its immediate rate decision Wednesday, but what it’d signal moving forward was more up in the air.
Economists at BofA, Goldman and JPMorgan all expected the median projection to shrink from the prior forecast of four 25 basis-point cuts next year to three, projecting an end-of-2025 target range of 3.5%-3.75%.
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